Abstract
In the process of China's socialist modernization construction, agriculture, as the primary industry, supports the construction and development of the national economy. However, with the rampant epidemic and international environmental turmoil, agricultural product prices have experienced a series of fluctuations. Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a mathematical model that can identify hidden states contained in observation vectors. By calculating the probability of hidden states appearing, we can find samples with similar patterns in historical data and current data, thus making predictions for the future. This article designs an HMM based early warning algorithm for agricultural product price fluctuations to achieve prediction and warning of abnormal fluctuations in agricultural product prices, provide high reliability pre production predictions for farmers, provide decision-making basis for organizing production, guide farmers to arrange production activities reasonably, effectively alleviate price fluctuations caused by “cluster planting”, and avoid the occurrence of “low price hurting farmers”, In order to ensure the healthy and stable development of the agricultural economy in the region. The experimental results show that the algorithm designed in this article can effectively predict the price fluctuations of agricultural products.