With the rapid pace of technical advancements, we often see new developments hyped up – and then quickly fall by the wayside when they don’t live up to expectations. Yet, over time, these advancements often continue to have a major impact.
It’s an odd little cycle – and one that Amara’s law neatly encapsulates. But what exactly is this, and how can it help us think about the future of tech?
What is Amara’s Law?
Amara’s Law – named for its creator, Roy Amara – states, “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
We’ve all been there – we get excited about new tech, but then our enthusiasm wanes. Years later, when many of us have nearly forgotten about the breakthrough, a well-polished version gains a foothold in our daily lives.
For example, supply chain optimization technology had humble beginnings but great expectations. It would take later developments in AI, analytics, and IoT devices to unlock the true potential of this technology. Today, it’s one of the major drivers in the growth of ecommerce.
Who was Roy Amara?
Wondering who came up with this law, and how he had so much foresight? Amara was an American researcher and scientist who started off as a Navy electronics technician during WW2, before studying business and engineering administration at MIT and gaining a PhD in Systems Engineering. He was also a forward-thinking futurologist.
Starting off at Stanford Research Institute, he joined with others to create the not-for-profit think-tank, the Institute for the Future (IFTF). Whether it was hiring scientists to study how ARPANET (a predecessor of the internet) was used, or pioneering discussions on global climate change as earlier as 1978, Amara was constantly looking at the cutting-edge – and trying to understand how we as humans responded to it.
Overestimating the impact of new technology
So why does it seem we’re bound hard and fast to Amara’s Law? Well, the media has only become a bigger influence since Roy first coined the principle. The stage is vastly larger but the actors are different. Today, social media influencers can reach out to millions of people with little effort.
News of a potentially innovative tech spreads like wildfire with retweets and upvotes. Before we know it, businesses and consumers are expecting a revolution. At a minimum, early adopters and investors are hoping to cash in on the hype.
We can see this with early social media platforms themselves. MySpace launched in 2003 It blew up quickly, selling for $580 million in 2005. It was once valued at $12 billion. However, ad-based revenue gradually declined and the company sold for $35 million in 2011.
Today the website continues as a social media platform for entertainers, performers, and standard users – but it’s nowhere near as big as expected from its early hype days.
Underestimating technology’s staying power
When hype dies down for a new tech, we are often quick to dismiss it. Why does this happen? Modern news cycles have shifted from weeks and months to hours and minutes. We carry smartphones, tablets, and work laptops that alert us to news multiple times a day.
There’s always something new to capture our attention. For example, research shows that the average user spends 54 seconds on a website. That means we view one website per minute while browsing online!
We spend less than a minute per website on average as there’s always a new trend or story to investigate.
Once word gets out that a new idea isn’t up to the hype, mob mentality decides it’s no longer useful. Media outlets and influencers further the negative coverage, suppressing potential innovation. Those with more at stake put in the real work, developing second and third-tier iterations.
What is the Gartner Hype Cycle?
Another way we can express Amara’s Law is via the Gartner Hype Cycle, pioneered by Jackie Fenn at Gartner. Below, you can see a visual representation of what happens with the birth of each new technology.
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a visual depiction of Amara’s Law in modern times.
Technology trigger: a potential, innovative technology is born as an idea or as an early proof-of-concept. Media coverage generates plenty of attention from industry leaders and the public. At this point, practical use cases are purely theoretical.
Peak of inflated expectations: publicity garners greater hype. Firms and large organizations begin to invest in developing the new technology. Others stand by, waiting for more solid evidence.
Trough of disillusionment: organizations invest in experiments and development. At this point, their practical results are much lower than their expectations. Some companies cut their losses while others continue to follow a seemingly “sunken cost” fallacy.
Slope of enlightenment: at this point, we have a much better understanding of the technology and its capabilities. Products have evolved way beyond early prototypes. Organizations continue to invest in development.
Plateau of productivity: now, the new tech becomes mainstream. A significant proportion of the public is not only aware of the new tech, they’ve adopted it. With a better understanding of impact, the tech becomes relevant in the long run.
Why is Amara’s Law important today?
New technologies are emerging and evolving with increasing acceleration. Organizations can’t afford to sign up for every trending tech concept. They also can’t invest in contingencies for every possible market disruptor.
Amara’s Law helps companies stay attached to reality. It’s a reminder of human psychology and how it affects market behavior. When it comes down to decision-making, you still rely on your business analysts and subject matter experts. Together, you take a long-term view with disruptive tech like generative AI – not buying into the overhyped promises, but not discarding the entire concept either.
Real-world examples of Amara’s Law
Let’s examine some applications of Amara’s Law to technology that affects our daily lives.
The Internet
The original internet, the ARPANET was developed in the 1960s. As a concept, it took the internet over thirty years to start cashing in on its potential. Even then, the dot.com era of AOL in the mid-1990s could have never predicted the impact of the internet today.
For example, the internet has changed how we work. A recent report found that over 67% of technology employees work remotely. Developers have capitalized on this new opportunity building collaboration and communication tools. Companies can operate with completely remote support teams using omnichannel contact center solutions.
It’s also changed how we shop, how we date, and how we communicate. Even language itself has been influenced by the rise of the internet – think about how ‘BRB’ relies on the idea of instant, non-verbal, distant communication.
Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Believe it or not, the beta versions of electric vehicles originated in the early 19th century. At the time, the technology just wasn’t practical. The internal combustion engine was developed and the rest was history.
Thanks to the environmental impact and price volatility of fossil fuels, EVs revived in the 1990s. Tesla released the first all-electric car in 2008. Soon after, many predicted the end of oil-dependent automobiles.
However, consumers were skeptical. EVs were expensive, tiny, and not so fun to drive. It appeared to be a flop. Fast forward to 2022 when electric vehicles represented 14% of all cars sold. EVs are here to stay and now the markets are considering self-driving vehicles.
Virtual Reality (VR)
Early VR technology of the 1970s was used for medical, military, and flight simulation. As video games took off in the following decade, consumers had visions of one day living in completely virtual worlds.
Due to bulky, expensive equipment, early VR entertainment failed to stick. The 2000s saw little to no public interest in virtual reality technology. (We had the internet to entertain us).
In the last decade, products like the Oculus Rift, have tapped into the VR market with more affordable, less-bulky equipment. Recently, the Apple Vision Pro was unveiled as a VR device that does more than entertainment. Apple plans to integrate AI technologies and apps for real-time enhancements such as translations and augmented reality (AR).
Generative AI
Generative AI is perhaps the most discussed technology today, but artificial intelligence goes way back to World War II and Alan Turing. While they aimed to decipher the Enigma machine, AI has grown much broader.
Developments in machine learning and neural networks over a decade ago led to the concept of GenAI. Frontrunner OpenAI released its Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) in June of 2018. Soon, others would follow suit.
After two years of development, GPT-3 “wrote” an article in The Guardian, and OpenAI eventually launched ChatGPT to the public with a loud roar in November 2022.
Soon after, news outlets were reporting the end of all writing jobs. Users were testing out ChatGPT’s ability to write code—even developers were under threat! In response to the hype, tech giants and Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta invested in their own development of generative AI.
Gen AI is only rounding the short-term overestimation phase of Amara’s Law or the Hype Cycle.
More than a year later, the impact of ChatGPT and generative AI lingers. It just hasn’t revolutionized anything…yet. There are plenty of issues with GenAI such as biased responses, made-up answers, and ethical issues with data collection. Solutions like drift detection are needed to prevent models from evolving out of spec.
While we temper expectations, we need to understand that GenAI is likely heading for the Trough of Disillusionment. In other words, rewards await those who are patient – and keep their expectations reasonable.
Organizations shouldn’t expect generative AI to take over all creative tasks, but they should expect them to change the way they work. For instance, McKinsey reported GenAI helped its developers cut code documentation time in half and reduced time spent generating code by 35-45%. We must neither dismiss nor go all-in for this evolving technology.
What does Amara’s Law mean today?
So how does Amara’s Law apply today? It’s a reminder that our perception of technology often vacillates between hype and skepticism. It’s a common flaw built into the human psyche.
With disruptive technology, the true impact unfolds gradually over time. Amara’s Law guides us to approach technological advancements with a moderate outlook.
Our understanding of technology is continually evolving. It’s shaped by both our aspirations and limitations. Acknowledging the tendency to overestimate short-term effects and underestimate long-term consequences, better prepares you for the changes ahead.
Disclaimer: The author is completely responsible for the content of this article. The opinions expressed are their own and do not represent IEEE’s position nor that of the Computer Society nor its Leadership.
With the rapid pace of technical advancements, we often see new developments hyped up – and then quickly fall by the wayside when they don’t live up to expectations. Yet, over time, these advancements often continue to have a major impact.
